Good morning, Dirt crew. Grab a full cup, because there's a big structural shift worth discussing today. While cattle blitzed past $249 in yesterday's session (more on that in a sec), the soybean calendar was quietly confirming something every corn-and-bean farmer needs to understand heading into summer: China hasn't booked a single new-crop U.S. soybean. Not. One. Cargo. Brazil is answering every call. Let's dig in.

China Is Ghosting Your New-Crop Soybeans (And Brazil Is Getting All the Action)

Here's a number that should make every soybean grower set down their coffee: as of mid-June 2026, China has not purchased a single cargo of new-crop U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year. Industry sources say that hasn't happened in roughly two decades. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2026, U.S. agricultural exports to China dropped by more than half — from nearly $12 billion to just $5.5 billion year-over-year. Brazil is picking up virtually every order.

Here's how this math works at the farm level. China typically accounts for 60%+ of all U.S. soybean exports. When they step back, the demand that doesn't show up on the export report is demand that doesn't pull soybeans out of your bin — or set a floor on your basis. Brazil's beans still land in China cheaper than U.S. beans after Chinese retaliatory tariffs are factored in, and Beijing has shown no urgency to change that calculus. The U.S.-China trade framework signed last year included commitments to buy 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 onward — but most traders think Chinese buyers will delay purchases until at least September when new-crop is actually in the bin.

What it means for you: if you're carrying old-crop beans or thinking about how to market new-crop, the structural backdrop is the most bearish it's been in years on the demand side. The silver lining? Soybeans still rallied 10¾¢ on Monday as the broader market digested the Iran deal. But that's an outside-market tailwind, not a demand signal. Your fall basis risk is real. Consider locking in some basis now if your elevator is offering anything reasonable, and watch the weekly USDA Export Inspections report every Monday for any sign of Chinese buying activity.

Sources: American Soybean Association; Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture; Farm Progress (China soybean buying); USDA AMS Export Inspections; AgAmerica tariff analysis (2026)

Sources: Brownfield Ag News (June 16, 2026 closes); Congress.gov (H.R.7567); Iowa State University Extension ICM Blog; Agweek (Canadian crop conditions); National Hog Farmer / Agweek (World Pork Expo 2026)

Source: Brownfield Ag News / CME Group — June 16, 2026 closing prices. Grain in $/bu; cattle & hogs in $/cwt.

The 6- to 10-day NWS outlook calls for a cool, wet finish to June across most of the Corn Belt — generally good news for V5-V9 corn that needs moisture, but a continued concern for the already-saturated southwest Iowa fields. The Southern and Central Plains remain drier, which will keep winter wheat harvest (11% complete last week) moving once windows open. The Northern Prairies/Canadian Prairies are also dealing with excess moisture; producers there should watch for field-access windows later this week. No major heat events are forecast through the end of June.

Sources: NOAA/NWS 6-10 day outlook; Pro Farmer (Corn Belt weather, June 2026)

The $1 Billion Bug Problem Just Met Its Match

PRRS — porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome — has cost the U.S. pork industry more than $1 billion per year for three straight decades. It kills piglets, tanks sow productivity, and burns through antibiotic and vaccine budgets without ever fully going away. New variants keep emerging. Seasonal patterns are breaking down. World Pork Expo 2026 (just wrapped in Des Moines) made clear it's still the number-one health challenge facing hog producers.

But this time there might actually be a fix. Genus PIC received FDA approval in April 2025 for a gene-editing technology that produces pigs with heritable resistance to PRRS. Health Canada and Canada's food safety agencies approved the pigs for production and sale in January 2026. The science: researchers removed a tiny section of the CD163 gene — the one PRRS virus uses as a molecular doorknob to enter pig cells. Without that receptor, the virus literally can't get in. No foreign DNA was added, so these aren't GMOs in the traditional sense. Commercial rollout is now underway in select markets, with broader U.S. availability expected through 2026 and beyond.

For pork producers watching their margins and their mortality rates: this is the story to follow. If PRRS-resistant genetics scale the way the industry expects, you're looking at a category-level shift in production economics — not just another vaccine.

Sources: PIC / Genus (prrsresistantpig.com); FDA approval announcement (April 2025); Health Canada determination (January 2026); National Hog Farmer / Agweek (World Pork Expo 2026); AVMA coverage

Brazil overtook the U.S. as the world's largest soybean exporter for the first time in 2013 — less than 15 years after China's WTO entry turbocharged global soy demand. Today Brazil accounts for over 70% of China's soybean imports. In the 1990s, that number was essentially zero.

That's your Tuesday dirt, served fresh. Check the Export Inspections report Monday morning for any sign of Chinese buying — if China finally picks up the phone, you'll want to know before the basis does. Stay dry if you're in Iowa, stay sharp everywhere else.

— The Farming Dirt Team